Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 1.493622 1.694690 1.908862 2.153539 2.424880 2.716113 3.051885
2024-12-22 1.224330 1.498026 1.808341 2.184594 2.626724 3.127979 3.737381
2024-12-29 1.067010 1.400269 1.800414 2.312362 2.945642 3.698727 4.656981
2025-01-05 0.869590 1.225855 1.679159 2.290936 3.086681 4.077502 5.394030
2025-01-12 0.726269 1.098717 1.600201 2.312616 3.284293 4.547107 6.293141
2025-01-19 0.600004 0.974876 1.509023 2.307125 3.446910 4.990093 7.205464
2025-01-26 0.522433 0.908329 1.488191 2.395974 3.747863 5.646828 8.465553
2025-02-02 0.451453 0.840041 1.455534 2.464027 4.027761 6.302620 9.787270
2025-02-09 0.384407 0.766279 1.403978 2.497036 4.260007 6.912878 11.100625
2025-02-16 0.329710 0.703580 1.361065 2.538119 4.509137 7.570984 12.541835
2025-02-23 0.270905 0.621605 1.272876 2.492638 4.615229 8.020652 13.707329
2025-03-02 0.216227 0.535631 1.163451 2.395086 4.623513 8.316271 14.657886
2025-03-09 0.181770 0.485446 1.116153 2.409492 4.837186 8.983439 16.290731
2025-03-16 0.149596 0.432329 1.054015 2.387822 4.985981 9.559022 17.827710
2025-03-23 0.131870 0.408859 1.049264 2.478200 5.351502 10.539810 20.125813
2025-03-30 0.106102 0.357794 0.975191 2.417074 5.424203 11.014536 21.598500
2025-04-06 0.088174 0.322208 0.929225 2.408234 5.597900 11.686592 23.470741
2025-04-13 0.072221 0.286951 0.876748 2.376820 5.722270 12.278196 25.244852
2025-04-20 0.063433 0.270871 0.869060 2.446221 6.062843 13.304894 27.884821
2025-04-27 0.055114 0.253466 0.854445 2.497228 6.369969 14.291874 30.520288
2025-05-04 0.046906 0.233324 0.828058 2.515446 6.607277 15.160037 32.990546
2025-05-11 0.040251 0.216344 0.807063 2.544144 6.871274 16.102339 35.666584
2025-05-18 0.032569 0.191628 0.756944 2.488330 6.933710 16.635585 37.577099